Open Letter to EU, US, and NATO Governments – This is Your Deterrence Failure: Confront It
Open Letter to EU, US, and NATO Governments:
This is Your Deterrence Failure: Confront It
Prior to 2018, the standard talking point for most Western governments toward the Balkans was fully consistent with the ideal of a Europe “whole, free, and at peace:” that no further pursuit of border changes or ethnoterritorialism would be permitted. Equality of citizens and acceptance of the historical reality of multiethnicity throughout the Western Balkans was presented not only as a prerequisite to Euro-Atlantic integration, but a requirement for maintenance of peace and comprehensive security after a series of wars left over 130,000 people dead in the span of a decade.
For well over a decade before 2018, the West’s policies in the region remained on bureaucratic autopilot – formally committed to Copenhagen criteria and liberal democratic values and standards, but increasingly distracted and defaulting to formalism and transactionalism with local elites. This zombie policy allowed NATO and EU enlargement without true resolution of outstanding disputes with neighbors. This error was raised at the time – and its effects can be seen now.
An inherently polarizing national authoritarian populism reminiscent of that seen in the former Yugoslavia beginning in the late 1980s became increasingly apparent among a number of EU member states and in the US with the election of Donald Trump. This cocktail of factors accelerated the negative trajectory of democracy in the Western Balkans. The only positive in this period – a breakthrough, now largely squandered in North Macedonia – came not because of the West’s policy, but despite it. Popular pressure forced the EU and US off the fence to compel Gruevski to new elections, then to accede to the results.
The embrace of the proposed partition of Kosovo made in summer 2018 by Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and his Kosovar counterpart Hashim Thaçi – marketed variously as “land swap,” “demarcation,” and “border correction” – first by the EU’s Federica Mogherini, then by the US government, deviated from nearly two decades of transatlantic (and in America’s case, bipartisan) policy. Unfulfilled nationalist agendas regionwide immediately took note; florid ethno-nationalist dreams never disappeared in the Balkans; they had been suppressed and deterred by a West that hoped the EU enlargement process would obviate the need for deterrence. Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik had long advocated state dissolution of Bosnia and Herzegovina, so readily used the new talking point. Vučić pointedly spoke of the need for good relations among “Serbs and Albanians,” with the clear implications that the borders in the region are not sacrosanct, but negotiable.
This is currently visible in the joint EU and US policy in Bosnia and Herzegovina, where – camouflaged in talk about election integrity – an effort to “amend the election law” is actually also about internal border demarcations and granting HDZ leader Dragan Čović his long-articulated dream of a de facto or de jure Croat third entity – the ethno-territorial holy grail of divisive nationalists. Even worse, the Western (EU/US/UK) support for this is using the Sejdić-Finci, Zornić, and Pilav cases as talking points, even though these rulings compel BiH to open the political space, not to tighten the feudal order. Croatia has made itself felt throughout this debate to press Croat ethno-territorial claims within BiH. The non-paper, Croatia put forward with illiberals Bulgaria, Hungary, and Slovenia, together with Greece, menacingly links state dysfunction (promised Čović and Dodik deliverables) to EU border control, to further inflame right and far-right fears of migrants and asylum seekers.
As a direct result of this morally rudderless policy, in the past week, we reached a new low. While the veracity of the document is still hotly disputed, an alleged “non-paper” put forward by Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša proposes the unification of Albanians, Serbs, and Croats in the region, partitioning BiH, North Macedonia, and Kosovo, but leaving Montenegro curiously unscathed, and not touching Serbia’s Sandžak. Whatever the provenance of the “non-paper,” there is no doubt a sincere cohort of adherents to such ethno-nationalist agendas. The first-order intent may be to make changes below this threshold seem more reasonable. But nobody should be fooled into belief that attempts to achieve these ends could be done without massive violence and forced population movements. Many on the “wrong side” of existing and projected lines on maps are vulnerable – and know it.
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama – self-styled national chieftain and one of the likely beneficiaries of such a carve-up – claims to have discussed the “non-paper” with Janša. It is important that such a proposal be denied and rejected, or confirmed by the EU Commission President and EU Council President. If it was indeed genuine, then Slovenia’s upcoming presidency should be called into question, as it would be delusional to believe that there would not be moral, reputational, and material impact on the EU’s security during its leadership tenure.
There is still time for the US and EU to arrest the current trajectory, which would eventually end in violence. But only a willingness to confront the reality of a failed policy to date can achieve this – at the commanding heights of government. Reinforcement of the deterrent forces in the region (EUFOR and KFOR) to credible strength and mobility is long overdue to ensure a vision of values-based comprehensive security is not simply rhetorical.
We, the signatories, representing civil society, academia, and concerned citizens from throughout the region and beyond – including citizens of the EU and US – implore Presidents Biden, von der Leyen, and Michel, and Secretary General Stoltenberg, as well as heads of government of leading EU and NATO member states to recognize the clear and present danger yielded by their current policies and to recalibrate them accordingly.
Sincerely,
- Prof. Dr. Mehmed Akšamija, member of Montenegrin Academy (CANU) Montenegro
- Mustafa Alagić, economist and businessman, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Stephen Albert, Former English language Editor BosNet, Montreal, Canada
- Safet Alispahić, political scientist, Sydney, Australia
- Andy Aydın-Aitchison, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, School of Law, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
- Dr. Sabahudin Bajramović, Professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Food Sciences, University of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Jessie Barton-Hronešová, Oxford Dept. of Intl. Development, St. Antony’s College, University of Oxford, UK
- Dr. Miroljub Barać, Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Belgrade, Serbia
- Svetislav Basara, writer, Serbia
- Professor Hazim Bašić, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr. Kurt Bassuener, Senior Associate, Democratization Policy Council / CSTPV, University of St. Andrews; Dundee, Scotland, UK
- Boban Batrićević, historian, Montenegro
- Mr Nemanja Batrićević, political scientist, Montenegro
- Ludwig Bauer, writer, Croatia
- Edina Bećirević, Professor of Security Studies, University of Sarajevo
- Samir Beharić, Fellow of the Transatlantic Inclusion Leaders Network (TILN) of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Biljana Bejkova, activist, North Macedonia
- Mira Bekar, university professor, North Macedonia
- Paolo Bergamaschi, Fondazione Alexander Langer Stiftung, Italy
- Živan Berisavljević, ambassador, Serbia
- Milivoj Bešlin, historian, Serbia
- Dr. Florian Bieber, University of Graz, Austria
- Sonja Biserko, Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia
- Srđan Blagovčanin, Chairman, Transparency International Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Assoc. prof. dr. Ana Bojinović Fenko, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
- Rade Bojovic, Gradjanska inicijativa 21. Maj, Montenegro
- Dr Marko Božić, lawyer, Serbia
- Draga Božinović, journalist, Serbia
- Nerma Bucan, Office of Christian Schwarz-Schilling
- Nenad Čanak, President of LSV, Serbia
- Svetlana Cenić, economist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr. Luisa Chiodi, Director, Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso Transeuropa, Trento, Italy
- Prof. Dr. Sci. Ana Chupeska, North Macedonia
- Norman Cigar
- Miloš Ćirić, political scientist, Serbia
- Prof. Dr. Nerzuk Ćurak, political scientist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Tarik Čengić, International Forum Bosnia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Prof. Dr. Adnan Čirgić, philologist, Montenegro
- Sabina Čoko, manager, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Darimir Ćurčić, pedagogue, secondary school director, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Prof. Dr. Hamid Čustović, Agricultural and Nutritional Faculty, University of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Abdulah Daul, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr. Sedad Dedić, Constitutional and Administrative Law, Faculty of Law, University of Zenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr. Johanna Deimel, Independent Analyst on Southeast Europe/Western Balkans, Munich, Germany
- Alex Denev, lawyer, North Macedonia
- Ana Dević, sociologist, Serbia
- Prof. Dr. Ismet Dizdarević, Professor emeritus, social psychologist, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Tanya L. Domi, Columbia University, NYC, US
- Pavel Domonji, political scientist, Serbia
- Momo Dragićević, journalist and satirist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dino Dupanović, historian, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Srđan Dvornik, translator, consultant, Croatia
- Srećko Đukić, ambassador, Serbia
- Slavko Đurđić, journalist, Montenegro
- Aleksandra Đurić-Bosnić, culturologist, Serbia
- Draško Đuranović, Editor of Pobjeda, Montenegro
- Tinka Đuranović, sculptor, Montenegro
- Peter Emerson, the de Borda Institute, Belfast, Northern Ireland, UK
- Ljubomir Filipović, political scientist, Montenegro
- Prof. Dr. Salih Fočo, Philosophical Faculty, University of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Muhamed Gačanović, International Forum Bosnia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Rasim Gačanović, International Forum Bosnia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Senid Gerin, International Forum Bosnia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Davor Gjenero, political scientist, Croatia
- Sabit Grabus, International Forum Bosnia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr Dinko Gruhonjić, journalist, University professor, Serbia
- Orhan Hadžagić, journalist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Prof. Dr. Sabahudin Hadžialić, CSF, UNINETTUNO University, Rome, Italy
- Prof. Dr. Enver Halilović, philosophy and sociology, ex-Rector University of Tuzla, diplomat, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Prof. Dr. Enver Halilović, member of the Montenegrin Academy (CANU), Montenegro
- Dr. Rizvan Halilović, doctor of legal sciences, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Baroness (Arminka) Helić, UK
- Aleksandar Hemon, Princeton University, US
- Dr. Marko Attila Hoare, Sarajevo School of Science and Technology, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr. Carole Hodge, political scientist, University of Glasgow, Scotland, UK
- Sejfudin Hodžić, Zvornik, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr. Andi Hoxhaj, University of Warwick, School of Law, UK
- Sead Husić, International Forum Bosnia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Mubera Isanović, professor, social activist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Amb. Victor Jackovich (ret.), first U.S. Ambassador to the Republic of BiH, Member of Board, Vienna Economic Forum
- Esad Jaganjac, Senior Mechanical Engineer at Deregallera, London
- Dr.-Ing. Jasmin Jahić, Research Associate, Department of Computer Science and Technology, University of Cambridge, UK
- Boško Jakšić, journalist, Serbia
- Antun-Zvonimir Jan, civic activist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Goran Janev, professor of social Anthropology, North Macedonia
- Duško Janjić, Forum for Ethnic Relations, Serbia
- Ferhad Jašarević, law graduate, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Nerma Jelačić
- Jadranka Jelinčić, Doctor of Legal Sciences
- Richard Johnson, U.S. Foreign Service Officer, retired
- Ivana Jordanovska, PhD Student at University of Southern California
- Matt Joseph, Dayton City Commissioner, Dayton, Ohio, US
- Đokica R. Jovanović, sociologist, Serbia
- Mića Jovanović, journalist, Serbia
- Pero Jurišin, Senior Consultant at the City of Split, Croatia
- Prof. Dr Husnija Kamberović, historian, Bosnia
- Dr. Tomasz Kamusella, Reader, School of History, University of St. Andrews, Scotland, UK
- Jasmina Kapetanović, architect/software developer, Amstelveen Netherlands
- Planinko Kapetanović, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dženeta Karabegović, University of Salzburg, Austria
- Dr. Soeren Keil, Canterbury Christ Church University, UK
- Prof. Dr. Izudin Kešetović, Finance and Financial Policy, University of Tuzla, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr. sc. Branko Kirigin, archeologist, Croatia
- Suzana Kirandžiska, Executive Director Foundation for Education and Cultural Initiatives, North Macedonia
- Izabela Kisić, Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia
- Aleksandar Knežević, Professor emeritus, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Prof. Dr. Olivera Komar, political scientist, University of Montenegro
- Prof. Dr. Ivo Komšić, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Sarajevo, UNSA, ex-member of the Presidency of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr. Slaven Kovačević, Faculty of Administration, University of Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Richard Kraemer, Head of Balkans Program, European Values Center for Security Policy, Prague, Czechia
- Marion Kraske, political analyst/journalist, Hamburg, Germany
- Dr. Gëzim Krasniqi, Lecturer in Nationalism and Political Sociology, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
- Strajo Krsmanović, dramatist, Director of Art Gallery, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Ana Krstinovska, President of Estima, Skopje, North Macedonia
- Professor Slavo Kukić, Member of the Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, sociologist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Adil Kulenović, President of Circle 99, professor and journalist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Haris Kulenović, journalist and scenarist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Mirza Kulenović, International Forum Bosnia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Mirsad Kunić, university professor, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Tarik Kupusović, retired professor and researcher, hydraulic engineering, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Professor Senadin Lavić, Faculty of Political Science, University of Sarajevo
- Dr. Lazar Lazić, university professor, Serbia
- Slaviša Lekić, journalist, Serbia
- Peter Lippman, author, Surviving the Peace: The Struggle for Postwar Recovery in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Seattle, UK
- Željko Majstorović, physicist and climatologist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Prof. Dr. Fatima Mahmutćehajić, university professor, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Rusmir Mahmutćehajić, International Forum Bosna, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Srđan Mandić, politician, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Eric Manton, Consultant, OSCE, Skopje, North Macedonia
- Mr. Milan Marković, philologist, Serbia
- Tomislav Marković, journalist, Serbia
- Slobodanka Markovska, university professor, North Macedonia
- Dr. Branislav Marović, historian, Montenegro
- Fikret Mehović, Global Security Expert, Sarajevo
- Nataša Micić, former Parliament Speaker, Serbia
- Nedim Milanović, manager, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr. Aleksandar R. Miletić, historian, Serbia
- Ema Markoska Miličin, translator, North Macedonia
- Vladimir Milichin, theater director, North Macedonia
- Srđan Milošević, historian, Serbia
- Fata Muftić, professor of sociology, Faculty of Political Science, University of Sarajevo
- Jasmin Mujanović, PhD, US
- Dr. Asim Mujkić, Faculty of Political Sciences, University of Sarajevo
- Dino Mustafić, film and theater director, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Fadil Mušanović, retired judge, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Sead Nazibegović, university professor, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- John Paul Newman, Maynooth University, Ireland
- Sir Geoffrey Nice, Geoffrey Nice Foundation, UK
- Tamara Nikčević, journalist, Montenegro
- Andrej Nikolaidis, writer and journalist, Montenegro
- Boris A. Novak, playwright, Slovenia
- Professor John O’ Brennan, Maynooth University, Ireland
- Ivan Obradović, university professor, Serbia
- Aleksandar Olenik, lawyer, Serbia
- Edin Omerčić, historian, Institute for History UNSA, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dr. Senad Oprašić, UNSA, ecology expert, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Ms. Sanja Orlandić, philosopher, Montenegro
- Ratko Orozović, director and satirist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Маrija Pandevska, university professor, North Macedonia
- Žarko Papić, Director IBHI (Independent Bureau for Humanitarian Interests), Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Safet Pašić, Ex-Ombudsman for Human Rights, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Lulzim Peci, Director KIPRED, Kosovo
- Senad Pećanin, journalist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Mirko Pejanović, academician and political scientist, Vice President of the Academy of Sciences and Arts of BiH, ex-member of the Presidency of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Prof. Dr. Marinko Pejić, Professor emeritus, Pedagogical Faculty, University of Sarajevo
- Dr. Latinka Perović, historian, Serbia
- Prof. Dr. Milenko A. Perović, university professor, Serbia
- Dr. Valery Perry, Senior Associate, Democratization Policy Council, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Tanja Petovar, lawyer, Serbia
- Violeta Petroska-Beshka, Professor of Psychology, President, Center for Human Rights and Conflict Resolution, Skopje, North Macedonia
- Dr. David Pettigrew, Southern Connecticut State University, New Haven, CT, USA
- Vesna Pešić, sociologist, Serbia
- Jusuf Piralić, Business Magazine, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Amna Popovac, Mostar, BiH
- Milorad Popović, writer, Montenegro
- Dr. Adnan Prekić, historian, university professor, Montenegro
- Nenad Prokić, playwright, Serbia
- Branka Prpa, historian, Serbia
- Randall Puljek-Shank, PhD, Bosnian-American Friendship Association, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Vesna Pusić, Sociologist, former Minister of Foreign and European Affairs, Croatia
- Aleksandra Radoman-Kovačević, educational expert, Montenegro
- Aleksandar Radoman, philologist, Montenegro
- Šeki Radončić, journalist and writer, Montenegro
- Duško Radosavljević, university professor, Serbia
- Snežana Rakonjac, journalist, Montenegro
- Prof. Dr. Šerbo Rastoder, member of Montenegrin Academy (CANU), Montenegro
- Božo Repe, historian, Slovenia
- Prof. Dr. Petra Roter, University of Ljubljana, Slovenia
- Farida Sadiković, medical doctor, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Prof. Dr. Lada Sadiković, Vice-Dean, Faculty of Criminology and Security Studies, University of Sarajevo
- Dr. Slobodan Sadžakov, university professor, University of Novi Sad, Serbia
- Adnan Salkić, International Forum Bosnia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Momir Samardžić, historian, Serbia
- Prof. Dr. Nikola Samardžić, historian, Serbia
- Dr. Zlatan Sarić, Prof., Faculty of Agriculture and Food Sciences, University of Sarajevo
- Prof. Dr. Christian Schwarz-Schilling, former Federal Minister and international High Representative; Büdingen, Germany
- Stefan Schwarz, Germany
- Nedim Sejdinović, journalist, Serbia
- Aleksandar Sekulović, lawyer, Serbia
- Envera Selimović, journalist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Daniel Serwer, Johns Hopkins SAIS/Peacefare.net, Washington DC
- Abdulah Sidran, writer, Member of the Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Nijaz Skenderagić, businessman, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Mehmet Slezović, painter, Serbia
- Dr. Nijaz Sofić, ophthalmologist, Sydney, Australia
- Prof. Dr. Džemal Sokolović, sociologist, Faculty of Political Science University of Sarajevo / University of Bergen, Norway
- Мenka Spirovska, consultant for environment and health security, North Macedonia
- Simona Spirovska Kostovska, actress, North Macedonia
- Mr. Nemanja Stankov, political scientist, Montenegro
- Danica Stefanović, pedagogue
- Ivan Stefanovski, Executive Director, EUROTHINK-Center for European Strategies, Skopje
- Lidija Stevanović, actress, Montenegro
- Prof. Dr. Dubravka Stojanović, historian, Serbia
- Dr. Milan Subotić, sociologist, Serbia
- Emir Suljagić, Director of the Memorial Center in Potočari (Srebrenica), Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Prof. Dr. Nedim Suljić, Vice-Dean, Faculty of Mining, Geology, and Civil Engineering, University of Tuzla, BH/US Academy of Arts and Sciences
- Hazim Šabanović, International Forum Bosnia, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Dino Šakanović, historian, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Đorđe Šćepović, writer, Montenegro
- Senada Šelo Šabić, Senior Research Associate, Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO), Zagreb
- Stana Šego, retired educational inspector, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Renad Šeremet, mechanical engineer, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Bojan Šošić, psychologist, Association of Independent Intellectuals Circle 99, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Darko Šuković, journalist, Montenegro
- Tanja Šuković, journalist, Montenegro
- Srđan Šušnica, Master of Cultural and Religious Studies and Graduate of Law, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Martin Tais, physicist and climatologist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Prof. Lamija Tanović, Chair, Humanity in Action, Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Petar Todorov, historian, North Macedonia
- Rako Todorović Todor, painter, Montenegro
- Dr. Tijana Todorović, visual artist, Montenegro
- Aleksandra Tomanić, Executive Director, European Fund for the Balkans, Belgrade
- Ambassador Osman Topčagić (retired), Sarajevo
- Rada Trajković, medical doctor, Serbia
- Dragana Tripković, playwright, Montenegro
- Dr. Nevenka Tromp, University of Amsterdam, Holland
- Dr. Sead Turčalo, Dean of the School of Political Sciences, University of Sarajevo
- Boris Varga, political scientist, Serbia
- Dion van den Berg, Team leader Europe at PAX for Peace, the Netherlands
- Jelena Vasiljević, Senior Research Associate, Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory, University of Belgrade
- Faruk Vele, journalist, Bosnia
- Miodrag Vlahović, ambassador, Montenegro
- Azem Vllasi, lawyer, politician and publicist, Prishtina, Kosovo
- Toby Vogel, Senior Associate, Democratization Policy Council, Brussels, Belgium
- Nikola Vučić, journalist, Bosnia
- Čedomila Vujosević Đurđić, journalist, Montenegro
- Zoran Vuletić, President of GDF, Serbia
- Bodo Weber, Senior Associate, Democratization Policy Council, Berlin, Germany
- Dr. Jonathan Wheatley, Senior Lecturer in Comparative Politics, School of Social Sciences, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Oxford Brookes University, UK
- Dr. Mark Wheeler, Wivliscombe, Somerset, UK
- Dr. Tim Wilson, Director, Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence (CSTPV), School of International Relations, University of St. Andrews, Scotland, UK
- Laura Wise, Research Associate, University of Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
- Visat Xhambazi, D4D, Prishtina, Kosovo
- Olga Zirojević, historian, Serbia
- Azra Zornić, citizen of Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Rajko Živković, journalist, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Open Letter to EU, US, NATO
Među potpisnicima je i 48 aktivnih članova Kruga 99