GLOBAL, REGIONAL AND LOCAL SECURITY CHALLENGES AND THREATS
TO BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
| Krug 99 (Circle 99) 24 September 2023-41 GLOBAL, REGIONAL AND LOCAL SECURITY CHALLENGES AND THREATS TO BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Bosnia and Herzegovina is confronted with ever growing geopolitical, regional and local challenges. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a veritable geopolitical earthquake that impacted on Bosnia primarily through the change in U.S. policy towards Serbia as part of the “appeasement” of rightwing leaders in Europe aimed at achieving unity in the struggle against Putin’s Russia. However, such a policy will inevitably result in negative consequences. The policies of President Aleksandar Vucic in Serbia and of Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic in Croatia definitely demonstrate that Serbia and Croatia are trying to use this situation to achieve their age-old long-standing aspirations toward Bosnia and Herzegovina. Besides these threats, Russian propaganda – combined with serious problems in the European Union (EU), especially mass migration and energy issues – has found fertile ground for enhancing the influence of ultra-rightwing political parties in EU states. Besides being pro-Russian, they are also non-democratic. The “appeasement” of [Serb Republic President] Milorad Dodik, supported not only by Croatia but also by Hungary and Austria, cannot have a positive result. The “status quo” would only further encourage people to emigrate, while some kind of actual conflict could result in any number of other possibilities and scenarios. The problem with such a policy is that Milorad Dodik, regardless of whether he has always intended this or has only expressed his intentions at the present time, is employing rhetoric as populist weaponry. But he could actually believe, similarly with Putin, that his moment has come and that he has enough power to declare some kind of independence and to move towards separation. Bosnian political figures should stop thinking that EUFOR, soon to be under Hungarian command, has enough forces to prevent a conflict. In fact, the only serious challenge to separatist tendencies is the American 173rd airborne brigade, which is based partially in Italy and partially in Germany and serves as a rapid reaction force. But, on September 4 the United States entered into the campaigning period for an election year. Any kind of deployment of U.S. troops at all, with the unavoidable TV footage of American soldiers entering transport aircraft in full military gear, would be very risky for any Administration in the White House, including for Biden. If Dodik decides to undertake something that requires a military response, Biden might take action, but, then again, he might not. No one can predict what might happen for sure, not even Biden himself. And maybe the least important factor would be the actual situation on the ground in Bosnia at that time. A second Trump mandate would be a geopolitical earthquake. Serbia has its own player in any future Trump Administration and that is Richard Grenell, who favors Serbia and is a potential National Security Advisor or Secretary of State in a second Trump Administration. Obviously, Vucic is playing for time and is waiting for that second Trump mandate. Since these circumstances work in the favor of retrograde forces in Serbia and Croatia, this means that Bosnia will have to rely primarily on itself. But, not all political parties with the prefix “pro-Bosnian” are engaged in capacity building that would enable Bosnia to overcome existing or future security threats. This is especially true when it comes to institution building and investment in human resources. At the local level, Bosnia has demonstrated considerable institutional capacity. This year’s tragic earthquake in Turkey showed how members of the Civil Rescue Corps (GCC) in Bosnia, in spite of difficulties such as a lack of funding and equipment (for example, helicopters), can very quickly dispatch the same number of people as larger more developed countries. In fact, a strong institutional capacity at the local level is the foundation for every democratic society. However, various obstacles still exist at the state and federal levels, such as lack of vision and lack of will, and this prevents these institutions from achieving their full potential. Bosnia should not rely solely on assistance from the international community in order to protect its fundamental interest: its sovereignty and its right to exist. Only investment in institution building, along with investment in human resources, can serve as a guarantee that current challenges to the existence of Bosnia and Herzegovina can be overcome. In this situation, pro-Bosnian political parties must be the ones to develop institutions, i.e. the state, wherever they can. If obstacles arise at the state and federal levels, then it should be the cantons that invest in institutions crucial to the state. They can do this alone, or in coordination with other cantons. Only in this way will Bosnia be able to defeat ever growing and complex threats, whether they are of local, regional or global nature. A militant terrorist uprising in Kosovo has been prevented. At the same time, the dangerous intentions of the leadership of Republika Srpska have been unveiled in its attempts to arouse conflicts with continuous citizens’ demonstrations under the banner “Here Is the Border” (“Granica postoji”). This has the obvious intent of converting the administrative dividing line between the entities into an international border. For this reason, serious security measures of the highest order should be undertaken. ** Session with Prof. Dr. Edin Mujkic, Visiting Professor of Security Studies, School of Public Administration, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, USA Adil Kulenovic, President of “Circle 99” (“Krug 99”) Association of Independent Intellectuals – Circle 99 (Bosnian: Krug 99), a leading Bosnian think-tank, was established in Sarajevo in 1993, in the midst of the Bosnian war (1992-1995), while the capital was under siege. Circle 99 provides a platform to bring together intellectuals of various professional and ethnic identities; university professors, members of the Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, artists, journalists, entrepreneurs, diplomats, and other prominent figures from Bosnia and from abroad. Multidisciplinary discussions and initiatives are held each Sunday throughout the academic year, in the form of regular sessions about politics, science, education, culture, economy, and other societal issues. The overall goal is to sensitize the public towards a democratic transformation, achieving and maintaining peace, and integration of modern Bosnia into the community of countries fostering liberal democracy. Circle 99 has been declared an organization of special significance for the city of Sarajevo. |
| Association of Independent Intellectuals – Circle 99 (Bosnian: Krug 99), a leading Bosnian think-tank, was established in Sarajevo in 1993, in the midst of the Bosnian war (1992-1995), while the capital was under siege. Circle 99 provides a platform to bring together intellectuals of various professional and ethnic identities; university professors, members of the Academy of Sciences and Arts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, artists, journalists, entrepreneurs, diplomats, and other prominent figures from Bosnia and from abroad. Multidisciplinary discussions and initiatives are held each Sunday throughout the academic year, in the form of regularsessions about politics, science, education, culture, economy, and other societal issues. The overall goal is to sensitize the public towards a democratic transformation, achieving and maintaining peace, and integration of modern Bosnia into the community of countries fostering liberal democracy. Circle 99 has been declared an organization of special significance for the city of Sarajevo. |
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